From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Within the immense confusion surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and abduct its leader – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.

Dr. Sharon West
Dr. Sharon West

A seasoned gaming analyst with over a decade of experience in online casino strategies and player psychology.