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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."